Kalshi settlement, payouts, and contract rules

◇Kalshi

A Kalshi event contract is a binary instrument: it pays $1 if its named outcome happens, $0 if it doesn't. Everything else — the trading mechanics, the cents pricing, the ticket — orbits around that single fact. This guide covers what the end of life of a contract looks like: when it settles, what triggers settlement, where to find the rules that decide it, and what to do if you think a settlement was wrong.

Settlement rules are part of the instrument itself, so they are useful context before modeling any position in the contract. If you haven't onboarded yet, start with Getting started with Kalshi.

Settlement to $1 or $0

Every Kalshi contract has a single named outcome. At settlement, the contract pays either $1.00 or $0.00 per contract — never an intermediate value, never a partial credit:

• A YES contract pays $1 if the underlying event resolves YES, $0 if NO.
• A NO contract pays $1 if the underlying event resolves NO, $0 if YES.
• For categorical events (multiple named outcomes — e.g. "FOMC: cut, hold, or raise?") only the contract matching the actual outcome pays $1. The others all pay $0.

Your net P&L per contract is the payout minus the price you paid. A YES contract bought at 47¢ that settles YES nets +$0.53; one that settles NO nets −$0.47. Buying back early ("sell to close") locks in the move-to-date instead of waiting for settlement — see the first-trade guide for the mechanics.

When settlement happens

Settlement timing depends on the rules of each market. The shape is always the same — trading closes, the underlying event resolves, then Kalshi marks the contract — but the spacing between those moments varies a lot.

Three timing patterns you'll see often:

• Live or scheduled events — sports finals, FOMC announcements, election calls. Trading closes at or just before the event; settlement follows within hours of the official result.
• Delayed-publication events — economic data releases, court decisions. Trading might close days before the publication date. Settlement happens within the window specified by the contract rules after the source publishes.
• Time-windowed events — "by end of June" markets that settle whenever the event happens or, failing that, when the deadline passes. Settlement can land on a calendar deadline rather than a specific moment.

The market page lists a trading-end time and an expected settlement window for each contract. The actual settlement instant can vary a bit within that window — Kalshi waits for the source of truth to publish before marking the contract.

Where to find the rules

Every Kalshi market exposes the same metadata fields. The two that determine your payout are settlement criteria and source of truth. Treat both as core contract terms, not background copy.

What to look for:

• Settlement criteria. Often a multi-paragraph spec that names the exact condition under which the contract settles YES vs NO. Read every word. Markets where the criteria say "cut" but mean something specific (a target range decrease vs a target rate decrease, for instance) consistently produce surprise outcomes for traders who skimmed.
• Source of truth. The authoritative reference Kalshi will consult. "FOMC official statement on federalreserve.gov" is unambiguous; "according to major news outlets" is flexible — that flexibility belongs in the risk model.
• Trading-end time and settlement window. Most rules give a specific UTC time for trading close and a window for settlement ("within 24 hours of source publication"). Mark the window — positions are locked during it.

Common rule patterns

Most Kalshi rules fall into one of a handful of shapes. Knowing the shape ahead of time makes the actual rule text faster to parse:

• "By date X" markets. Settle YES if the event happens by the deadline, NO otherwise. The implicit risk: the deadline arrives before the underlying event would have happened, and the market resolves NO even though the event eventually occurs.
• "On date X" markets. Settle based on what happens on a specific date or in a specific window. Rules usually pin the timezone — but check; "on Sept 18" can be interpreted as UTC, Eastern, or the source's local timezone.
• Threshold markets. "Will metric X exceed Y?" The rules name the source data series and the exact threshold. Watch for rounding — a release of Y - 0.01 might still settle YES if the rules round, and NO if they don't.
• First-of-N markets. "Which candidate wins?" Settles to a single named outcome among several. Check the cancellation rule for cases where none of the named candidates actually win (e.g. a delegate of a major party drops out and an independent is elected — what happens?).

Disputes and resolution review

Because Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated DCM with a centralized operator (rather than an on-chain venue with an oracle vote), disputes go through Kalshi's own market-integrity process — not a token-holder vote.

What that looks like in practice:

• Most settlements aren't disputed. Clean source data + clear rules = a quick automated mark.
• If you think a settlement was wrong, use Kalshi's current support or review path with a clear citation to the source of truth and the relevant rules section.
• Time matters. Review the current market rules and Kalshi support path for any dispute or review deadlines. After balances are credited and withdrawn, reversals can become harder logistically.
• Kalshi reviews under its market integrity rules, which are published on their site. The framework prioritizes the rules-as-written and the named source of truth.

What to do if a market resolves wrong

A short documentation checklist if you believe a settlement is incorrect:

1. Re-read the rules and source. Check the exact rules text on the market page (or in your trade history) against the source of truth Kalshi pinned. Many apparent settlement issues come from headline wording that differs from the detailed rules.
2. Check Kalshi's announcement. When a settlement is contentious, Kalshi often posts a short note explaining the decision. Read it before filing.
3. Document the discrepancy. Cite the rule clause, quote the source verbatim, and explain why they conflict.
4. Use Kalshi's current review/support path. Clear, concise, with citations. Generic complaints are slower to action than specific ones.
5. Wait for review. Reviews take time, and the funds tied to the position may remain locked until the review completes.

What EdgeLedger surfaces today

EdgeLedger reads Kalshi market data — quotes, spreads, volumes — and uses them in the Pro arbitrage scanner. Settlement state and position-level P&L for your individual Kalshi account are not yet mirrored into the EdgeLedger dashboard; per-account integration is on the roadmap, not shipped.

Until that lands, your authoritative settlement view lives in Kalshi's own UI: open positions, resolved positions, and 1099-style year-end summaries are all on Kalshi.

Where to go next

• Getting started with Kalshi — CFTC context, signup, and funding rails.
• Placing your first contract trade — the buy-side mechanics that put you into a position whose settlement you'll want to read about here.
• Reading a Polymarket market page — the on-chain counterpart, useful if you trade across venues; UMA resolution is a different mechanism from Kalshi's internal review.