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Placing your first contract trade on Kalshi

Browse event contracts, read Yes/No pricing in cents, compare limit vs market orders, model order size, and confirm.

·8 min read·Compliance reviewed

Kalshi

This guide walks through what placing a contract trade on Kalshi actually involves: finding an event, reading prices in cents, choosing limit vs market, sizing, and confirming the order. It assumes you've already funded a Kalshi account through a supported rail. If not, start with Getting started with Kalshi.

1. Browse event contracts

Kalshi organises markets into events (a real-world question) that contain one or more contracts (the binary outcomes you actually trade). For a binary event like "Will the Fed cut rates by Sept 18?" the event has a single YES/NO contract; for a categorical event like "FOMC decision: cut, hold, or raise?" the event has multiple contracts, one for each named outcome.

When reviewing markets:

  • Filter by category. Kalshi's listings are tagged (Economics, Politics, Climate, Sports, etc.). Category filters make it easier to review markets where you understand the underlying event and rules.
  • Look at volume. Total dollar volume on the event is the fastest read on whether the book is liquid enough for the size you want to trade.
  • Read the rules. Each contract has resolution criteria. As on any predictive market, the rules are the contract you're trading; read them as part of any position model. (See the Polymarket reading-a-market guide — most of the framework transfers, even though Kalshi resolves internally rather than via UMA.)

2. Read Yes/No pricing in cents

Kalshi prices contracts in cents from 0 to 99 (or 100, on a resolved YES). Each contract pays $1.00 if its named outcome resolves; otherwise it pays $0. So today's price is also today's implied probability.

A YES contract priced at 47¢ implies 47% probability. Buy it for $0.47, get $1 back if YES — otherwise nothing.

A handful of practical implications:

  • YES + NO ≈ 100¢. If YES is 47¢, the matching NO is around 53¢ (modulo spread). They're mirrors of each other; the side below your probability estimate has positive gross EV before fees and slippage.
  • Sub-cent precision is supported on liquid markets, e.g. 47.5¢ fills are real. On thin markets the tick increment can be coarser.
  • Spread is a fee. Best bid 46¢ and best ask 48¢ means you pay 2¢ of spread to take liquidity. On a 50¢ contract that's a 4% cost-of-entry — a meaningful fraction of typical edge.

3. Pick a contract and side

For a binary event, the choice is literally YES or NO. In EV terms, the side whose price sits below your probability estimate has positive gross EV before fees and slippage. If your probability sits between the YES ask and the NO ask after accounting for spread, neither side has positive gross EV under that estimate. See Expected value (EV) for the full frame.

For a categorical event with multiple named outcomes, the same logic applies per outcome — but be careful: the implied probabilities of all outcomes should roughly sum to 100¢ minus spread. If they sum to materially more, the spread is wide enough that every outcome has some negative-EV component to taking liquidity, and you're paying that cost regardless of which side is selected.

4. Choose an order type

Kalshi supports two order types, same as a normal brokerage:

  • Limit order. You specify the price (in cents) you're willing to pay or sell at. The order rests in the book until matched or cancelled. Patience-for-price.
  • Market order. Submits at the best available price, walking the book if necessary. Fills now. No price guarantee — you get whatever the book has.

Practical notes:

  • Limit orders give price control. Even setting your limit at the current ask caps the worst price you accept; market orders can fill worse than expected on thin books.
  • Market-order risk depends on size and depth. Small orders on liquid books behave differently from larger orders on thin books.
  • Cancellation is free of charge. A resting limit order you no longer want costs nothing to cancel.

5. Size the order

The order ticket asks for the number of contracts rather than a USD amount. With each contract paying $1, the math is simple:

  • Cost = limit price × number of contracts. 100 contracts at 47¢ → $47.00.
  • Maximum payout = $1.00 × number of contracts. 100 contracts → $100 max if YES resolves.
  • Maximum loss = the cost. There's no margin or borrow on Kalshi event contracts; you can't lose more than you put in.
Side, order type, size, summary — the ticket is a brokerage trade ticket with cents pricing instead of share prices.

Sizing concepts:

  • Edge × bankroll fraction. Modeling exposure as a fraction of total bankroll shows how any single market can dominate P&L.
  • Round dollar amounts hide contract counts. "$50 at 47¢" maps to a specific number of contracts; small price changes can change the exposure.
  • Variance tolerance matters. A position that looks acceptable in expected value can still produce an uncomfortable realized drawdown.

6. Confirm and place

Submitting an order takes you through a confirmation prompt. Read it before you click. What to verify:

  • The side matches your intent (YES or NO).
  • The price matches your limit (or, on a market order, isn't far worse than the ask you saw a moment ago).
  • The size is what you typed — not what auto-fill or a stale cursor produced.
  • Your total cost matches the math.

After you confirm, Kalshi submits the order to its order book and returns a confirmation:

  • For market orders: filled at the price the book provided. If the book moved while you were confirming, the fill can be a tick or two worse than the displayed quote — a small but non-zero risk.
  • For limit orders that match immediately: filled at your limit price. Often the case if you set the limit at the current ask.
  • For limit orders that don't match yet: posted to the book. You'll see them under your open orders until they fill, you cancel, or the market closes.

7. After the fill

Once an order fills, the position appears in your Open positions view on Kalshi. Three things you can do from there:

  • Hold to resolution. Each contract pays $1 if its outcome resolves; $0 otherwise. Realised P&L lands when Kalshi finalises the market.
  • Sell to close. If the price has moved in your favour (or you've changed your mind), you can sell your contracts back into the book at the current bid. This locks in the move-to-date without waiting for resolution.
  • Let it expire. If you forget about a position, it just resolves when the underlying event does. No action needed — but also no chance to capture an intermediate price move.

What appears in EdgeLedger

EdgeLedger reads Kalshi market data for the Pro arbitrage scanner today — quotes, spreads, and volumes — but doesn't yet mirror your individual Kalshi positions or trade history into the dashboard. Per-account integration is on the roadmap; until then, your per-position view lives in Kalshi's own UI.

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