Concepts
Foundational ideas behind prediction markets: how prices map to probabilities, expected value, liquidity, and fees.
How prediction markets work
7 min readA plain-English explainer: what a prediction market is, how prices reflect probabilities, who's on the other side of your trade, and how markets differ from sportsbooks.
Reading prices and expected value
7 min readConvert a Yes price to implied probability, compute expected value (EV) on a trade, and compare the same market across venues — with worked examples.
Liquidity, slippage, and order book vs AMM
8 min readWhy liquidity matters for the price you actually fill at, how slippage shows up on each venue, and the practical differences between order books (CLOB) and automated market makers (AMM).
Cross-venue arbitrage — what EdgeLedger detects
8 min readHow EdgeLedger spots price discrepancies for similar events across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold — and what can make a flagged opportunity real vs illusory.
Risk management for predictive market trading
9 min readBankroll sizing, Kelly intuition without the prescription, correlated bets, settlement risk, and platform-specific risks — the things that turn +EV traders into break-even or worse.